New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins – NFL Betting Pick Week 1 2014

Finally the NFL is back! And for real this time. Pre-season is over with, most trades have been done, fantasy teams have been drafted and now I am ready to get some games going. I have been somewhat lazy with studying up on the league, both for fantasy and betting purposes, but I feel pretty good about the team I have drafted. Now I only need to get a good run going when it comes to betting.

As always it is a little tricky being able to determine the teams within the first weeks as one never knows how much quality work has been done and who fits in with which player, coaches and schemes. Pre-season seldom gives you a clear picture, but the after the first 2-3 games you will see who have settled in and who hasn’t. I really believe this is to the advantage of the bettors, so you better take advantage of this period when you can.

New England Patriots

This team is gonna be a serious contender for the Lombardi Trophy, just as they have been for the last 15 years or so. Tom Brady is still at the helm and shows no signs of slowing down. What was the problem last year was the lack of targets. Gronkowski missed most of last season and newly acquired receiver Amendola still regularly struggles with injuries. That might be all in the past now as Gronk is now getting good work with Brady and reports they jumped right back into it like they never skipped a beat. With the supporting act of Julian Edelman and the now more experienced rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins we expect Brady to be back doing what he is best at: slinging plenty of touchdowns.

The defense has also improved immensely over the off-season in our opinion. The addition of Darelle Revis is a big one, as well as Brandon Browner (although he will miss this one). Arrington is no scrub though. But what is probably more important is the resurrection of two very important players in DT Vince Wilfork and LB Jerod Mayo. This is gonna help the run stopping by quite a bit as they struggled with that plenty last year.

Miami Dolphins

An exciting prospect that is gonna be hard to measure. They looked somewhat good last year, but a less than stellar QB, supported by a weak RB and trash offense line is not what they needed in order to get the Ws. Their receiving corps is quite solid, including Clay at TE, but with Tannehill running things it is gonna be hard battling with the big dogs.

Still we do see potential for this team as they are still acquiring solid veterans. Last year the defense got revamped, now we see the offense get shuffled around. Adding some solid Oline members and Moreno in the RB position might help them some, but not enough we feel. Consider also the fact that Mike Pouncey, their Pro Bowl center, is missing the start of the season and we don’t think they will get off on a good start here.

Our Predictions

We really like the New England Patriots this year and given that Brady’s reign is quickly coming to an end they are in need of getting that trophy sooner rather than later. Miami Dolphins should be an easy opponent for this dominant team, even if they are playing away. The Dolphins did catch a win here last year, even though Brady put up good numbers. It just so happened that Tannehill had even better. Don’t expect to see that happening again though and look for the Brady-Gronk relationship tear through the underperforming linebackers of Miami. We like the Patriots minus the points.

Betting Pick: New England Patriots (-4.5), 1.91 @ TopBet

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